Seattle property is falling at a rate of 16% annualized on a $/sq foot right now (7.5% off peak in < 6 months). But, my oh my, talk about a strong rental mkt. predecessor. Thanks. Personally I think that’s a lot more likely. Seattle’s economy will benefit disproportionately from strength in the non-US global economy. The primary basis for the housing price appreciation is that of the central bank policies of artificially low interest rates and currency debasement. The inflation measurements are starting to reflect the rate cuts earlier this year. 2) Weakness in the housing market has little to do with “sub-prime” or “resets”. • Home price declines are very rare. Median home values adjusted for inflation nearly quadrupled over the 60-year period since the first housing census in 1940. Could it be that Cobain and his cohorts put Seattle on the road to un-affordability? It’s larger and has been tricked out, but those numbers just don’t comport with reality. I think it was in 1990 or 1992 when they quit making more land. So a lot of them start walking – either as a response to some crisis, or just because they don’t see the point of feeding the alligator any more. – 2007 vintages of subprime are worse than previous vintages, so more defaults on less volume = about the same amount of problems. Seattle “median” is $435k. This generally will affect the lowest end of the real estate market. But as many of you have already observed, past performance does not predict the future. That rules out buying anything in Seattle. Today, China and Germany export more than us. 19 was the average days on market for a home to sell in Snohomish County. Tim, this blog is now officially better than anything I’ve seen in the Seattle media on real estate. Like the low rates of the 2003-2004 period, the emergence of subprime loans and loose “stated income” loans with zero down payment opened the housing market to many people who had been previously shut out. #33: Folks; we are all one board meeting away from loosing our jobs. I saw the shamelessly promotional NAR tv ad this weekend that proclaimed that real estate values just about double every ten years and that we need to contact a realitor right away to get in on this bonanza. People here who are insinuating that the market is going to drop 40-50% are just smoking crack. Drop: Spring ’79 to Fall ’85 – -20% in 6.5 years – “Conforming Jumbos” won’t help much if at all. $747,000 +6.9% year-over-year # of Homes Sold. In Seattle, home prices began to climb steadily in 2012, following a drop that occurred during the nationwide housing collapse. I’d tweak it a bit with pragmatic facts, check out the latest world rankings for IT and communications: http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20070403-world-economic-forum-releases-annual-it-rankings-us-slides.html. Nice post, but I think you need to check some of your “facts”: Wall Street won’t like seeing their profits getting inflated away, and at some point they’ll start pressuring the Fed to ease off the cheap money. 3. $845,500 +16.5% year-over-year. Peak to start of next big run-up: 6.5 years, So we’re looking at an average run-up of around 2 years, followed by a dropping/flat period of about 7.5 years. And we’re just beginning this process. The median value of single-family homes in the United States rose from $30,600 in 1940 to $119,600 in 2000, after adjusting for inflation (see graph). The Tim on Internet Radio with Rain City Guide | Seattle Bubble — News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area. 2. Case developed a method for comparing repeat sales of the same homes in an effort to study home pricing trends. You may use these HTML tags and attributes:
. Also, did you post the affordability graph that you mentioned in February? Buyers used this new found buying power to run out and bid up home prices to previously unaffordable levels — because with low interest rates they were now “affordable.”. Obviously most of these areas can’t lay claims to strong regional economies or rapidly depleting availability of land, etc. This house 2.5 years ago was 310k. in the 1970s the US dollar also went of the gold standard…. If you have an EECS degree, earning $60k right out of college is pretty much the norm. What I want to know is: which is it? 2. drive home the fact that the esteemed readership of Seattle Bubble really are looking at the issues from a peculiar, privileged perch. This recent run-up in Mtg rates will definitely slow the already testy mkt. The average size for a Seattle, WA apartment is 698 square feet, but this number varies greatly depending on unit type, with cheap and luxury alternatives for houses and apartments alike. a 22-year “analysis” of King County home prices, conversation with local mortgage company owner Steve Tytler, Central Puget Sound Real Estate Research Report, weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse, Declining Real Estate Sales Hitting State Revenues, “Conforming Jumbos” won’t help much if at all, 2007 vintages of subprime are worse than previous vintages. The median rent more accurately depicts rental rates in the middle of the distribution of rents and is thus preferred in the analysis below. Probably not. King County Home Prices & Affordability 1950-2009 Q1 | Seattle Bubble — News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area. Now, we are going “back to the future.” Lending standards are reverting back to sane levels and that has reduced demand for housing. You are going to have to produce some evidence. Great work, Tim! Won’t this individual with EECS degree never be able to keep up with the appreciation train and be priced out forever? I have no idea what I accidentally clicked to get to this piece, but I’d like to see the first graph updated, and it would be nice to have inflation stats superimposed on it too since that’s what caused the run up in the 70s. Do I really think we’re facing 30+ years of flat prices? You could run the same analysis on a price/sq ft basis and the results would be more or less the same. That’s your new limit. Don’t bother citing Tim’s employment study because it is majorly flawed. Looking at that 15-year-long increase — without so much as a plateau — one would expect that there’s a long plateau or even decline just ahead of us. Seattle Single Family House Sales by Month, with Median Price per House Square Foot (from King County Data) It is the biggest jump in house prices since April of 2018. 125% of that is $543k. Check mortgage rates lately? The Case-Shiller Home Price Index measures house price inflation and is similar in concept to the government’s Consumer Price Indexes which measure consumer price inflation. So, here’s an updated look at the long-term trends in local home prices and […]. So the idea of a flat-top at these price/rent ratios is just as absurd in Seattle as anywhere else. Median house prices are up 15.9 percent to $666K, or is … Maybe some, but certainly not completely. I’d add a foot note to this world banking mess causing a horrifying bubble pop; we have a glut of engineers and ITs in America, but at normal salary levels the elites are too cheap to pay. Now look at the present “step.”, Step 4? So a Case-Shiller value of 200 means house prices have doubled since January 2000. 1,227 homes went pending in Seattle. fed cutting rates hasn’t done a thing. So, here it […], […] King County Home Prices: 1946-2007 […]. Clearly, your eyes are only trained to see misleading two-dimensional graphs. they’re poor and don’t have 20% down payments). “If you have an EECS degree, earning $60k right out of college is pretty much the norm. Round 2 of the real estate deflation hasn’t even hit yet. I know this was a lot of work. The Central Puget Sound Real Estate Research Report (originally known as the Seattle Real Estate Research Report) has been publishing local housing market information every six months since 1946. How much have fed rate cuts driven them down so far? If you look closely at the chart, there was another “stair step that starts about 2000 and continues until about 2003, then the housing market takes off again. Jump: Fall ’76 to Spring ’79 – 71% in 2.5 years This question is for testing whether or not you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions. 89. Unfortunately, I suspect there is a much higher correlation between the availability of credit and housing appreciation than there is between jobs or population growth. 1,298 +37.5% year-over-year. Lots of young engineers ready for experience, but you need to get a job in Seattle first to get experience.
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